Good evening everyone,

For this assignment, I'm going to discuss an article that I found that discusses the future of UMVs in navies around the world.

I've found an article from NewAmerica.org that talks about the future of drones in maritime warfare. It first highlights that maritime drones are not only being researched and fielded by nations with modern navies (like the U.S., Great Britain, and China), but also smaller military organizations like the Houthi rebels. The Houthi's famous aerial drone attack of a Saudi oil field within the past year showcased their ability to use drones to the world . However, there was an earlier incident where they struck a Saudi Navy frigate with a UMV by ramming into the frigate then exploding. I bring up this incident to show that, while still relatively new, UMVs are being widely used across the world .

With UMVs being so widely used, the article then talks the U.S. Navy's drone plan for the future. The Navy has created its first Unmanned Undersea Vehicle Squadron (UUVRON) to start fielding UMVs. The goal of this unit is to use UMVs to 'extend the reach of the fleet; including near shore and denied areas' . Most of the UMVs in the Navy have been focused on performing dangerous defensive, reconnaissance, and patrol duties. For example, a swarm of drones were used to track and identify ships in a harbor for base defense. The Navy also tested an anti-submarine UMV with an operational trial where it sailed from California to Hawaii. Lastly, there is a reconnaissance UMV that can operate submerged for 6 months on end. 

The main point of this article is that the US Navy, and others around the world, are focusing on designing larger single UMVs for patrol and reconnaissance with swarm UMVs to supplement. I agree that these drone are a viable use of technology and will definitely be used in the future. Large, capable UMVs will be essential to many navies' future warfare plans. In my opinion though, I think that the future of UMVs is going to include a lot more cheap, "suicide-run" drone like the one the Houthi rebels used.

I believe that a majority of drones will be cheaper drones armed with explosives because the drones needed to operate them are cheap, easy to make, and hard to stop. Terrorist organizations like ISIS, who don't have large budgets and are limited in weapons technology, have also used simple UAVs to drop grenades and IEDs onto opposing troops in recent conflicts. Also, many drones used to today in military operations are of the cheaper and more expendable type. For example, the U.S. Army and Marines use the RQ-12A Wasp drone which is basically a small RC plane with cameras and sensors on it. 

To continue with examples mentioned before, ISIS used $1,500 dollar Chinese-made drones in combat. These drones not only drop explosives but can provide quick and hard to counter reconnaissance of enemy positions. The U.S. and allies have very few weapons available that can easily knock a drone out of the sky. There are underwater UMVs that cost a similar price- like the SOFAR Trident that costs roughly $1,500. With UMVs costing the same as a drone, it would not take much effort to convert an underwater drone into a weapon system. 

With the Houthis' attack on the Saudi frigate, UMVs have been shown to be a potent weapon systems for single-use strike attacks. More modern navies are pursuing larger, more sophisticated UMVs for reconnaissance, surveillance, and  patrol purposes. While these more sophisticated UMVs will have the ability to attack and inflict damage, I think that cheaper UMVs will be more widespread as non-state actors continue to explore their use. They may also see more use in the world's oceans because that has typically been the domain of powerful nation's navies. Cheap, expendable UMVs will provide an easy access point for smaller military forces to strike against larger foes.

-Marty

References:

Bergen, P., Sterman, D., Salyk-Virk, M, & Mellon, C. (2019). The future of drone warfare: The rise of maritime drones. New America. Retrieved from https://www.newamerica.org/in-depth/world-of-drones/7-future-drone-warfare-rise-maritime-drones/

Cavas, C. P. (2017). New Houthi weapon emerges: a drone boat. DefenseNews. Retreived from https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/idex/2017/02/19/new-houthi-weapon-emerges-a-drone-boat/

Pomerleau, M. (2017). In drones, ISIS has its own tactical air force. C4ISRNET. Retreived from https://www.c4isrnet.com/digital-show-dailies/modern-day-marine/2017/09/21/in-drones-isis-has-its-own-tactical-air-force/

Trident. (2019). Retreived from https://www.sofarocean.com/products/trident